Open data · CC BY 4.0

Track record

Each Radar scenario names the signal that would confirm it, the one that would disprove it, and a deadline. When the deadline passes we score it. If nothing observable settled it, we say so — an unchecked call is not a failed one, and not a win either.

All scenarios

scenarios

Hit rate stays hidden until at least 5 scenarios have a real verdict (now 3). A percentage of two outcomes is noise.

Scenarios, newest first

US10Y

US10Y yields rise above recent range on debt data release.

First published 20 Aug 2026 · negative · review risk

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

SMH

Nvidia reports accelerated Blackwell shipment guidance.

First published 12 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

BTC

Domestic exchanges publish listing timelines for BTC and ETH.

First published 12 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

SMH

Sony or TSMC announces additional capex commitments tied to the venture.

First published 10 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

SPX

S&P 500 closes above 7800 on follow-through volume after the target revision.

First published 10 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

BTC

Bitcoin holds above 65000 after the CPI print.

First published 10 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

SMH

Increased component orders reported by AI-exposed suppliers.

First published 6 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

SMH

SMH ETF outflows exceed $500 million in the week following the OpenAI report.

First published 2 Aug 2026 · negative · review risk

The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.

Could not check

SOL

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

BTC

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Price 63,251 fell below the 200,000,000 trigger.

Not counted: the trigger level was misread from the text (it is not a price), so this verdict is void.

Could not check

AAPL

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

BRENT

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

SMH

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 27 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

SMH

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 27 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

BTC

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 26 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

BRENT

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 26 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

AMZN

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 26 Jul 2026 · negative · review risk

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

SMH

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 25 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

AMD

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

BTC

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

BRENT

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

SOL

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

WTI

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

XLE

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check

SPX

Confirm signal not recorded

First published 23 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch

Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.

Could not check