Open data · CC BY 4.0
Track record
Each Radar scenario names the signal that would confirm it, the one that would disprove it, and a deadline. When the deadline passes we score it. If nothing observable settled it, we say so — an unchecked call is not a failed one, and not a win either.
All scenarios
30
scenarios
Hit rate stays hidden until at least 5 scenarios have a real verdict (now 3). A percentage of two outcomes is noise.
Scenarios, newest first
US10YCould not check
US10Y yields rise above recent range on debt data release.
First published 20 Aug 2026 · negative · review risk
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
SMHCould not check
Nvidia reports accelerated Blackwell shipment guidance.
First published 12 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
BTCCould not check
Domestic exchanges publish listing timelines for BTC and ETH.
First published 12 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
SMHCould not check
Sony or TSMC announces additional capex commitments tied to the venture.
First published 10 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
BTCDisproved
ETF flow data shows increased adoption of Bitcoin yield products.
First published 13 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Price 62,773 fell below the 63,378 trigger.
SPXCould not check
S&P 500 closes above 7800 on follow-through volume after the target revision.
First published 10 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
BTCCould not check
Bitcoin holds above 65000 after the CPI print.
First published 10 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
US10YConfirmed
US H.15 Selected Interest Rates release on 2026-08-03 shows benchmark range unchanged.
First published 26 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch
Confirmed: US H.15 Selected Interest Rates release on 2026-07-27 shows limited repricing.
XAUUSDOpen
Gold holding above $4,000 as Fed holds rates.
First published 29 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch
Spot gold little changed at $4,024.54 per ounce with markets pricing in rate decisions.
SMHCould not check
Increased component orders reported by AI-exposed suppliers.
First published 6 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
SMHCould not check
SMH ETF outflows exceed $500 million in the week following the OpenAI report.
First published 2 Aug 2026 · negative · review risk
The deadline passed and nothing we can observe settled it.
BTCDisproved
BTC trades below 200-week moving average near $63,770.
First published 3 Aug 2026 · negative · review risk
Price 64,197 rose above the 63,770 trigger.
BTCOpen
Next-day ETF flow releases show continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
First published 30 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Bitcoin ETFs Record $312M Inflows as Ether Funds See Outflows.
SOLCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
BTCCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Price 63,251 fell below the 200,000,000 trigger.
Not counted: the trigger level was misread from the text (it is not a price), so this verdict is void.
AAPLCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
BRENTCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 29 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
SMHCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 27 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
SMHCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 27 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
BTCCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 26 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
BRENTCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 26 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
AMZNCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 26 Jul 2026 · negative · review risk
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
SMHCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 25 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
AMDCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
BTCCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
BRENTCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
SOLCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
WTICould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
XLECould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.
SPXCould not check
Confirm signal not recorded
First published 23 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch
Dropped from the Radar before any signal settled it.