Open data · CC BY 4.0

Track record

Each Radar scenario names the signal that would confirm it, the one that would disprove it, and a deadline. When the deadline passes we score it. If nothing observable settled it, we say so — an unchecked call is not a failed one, and not a win either.

All scenarios

Confirmed: 1Disproved: 2Open: 2Could not check: 25
30
scenarios

Hit rate stays hidden until at least 5 scenarios have a real verdict (now 3). A percentage of two outcomes is noise.

XAUUSD
Gold holding above $4,000 as Fed holds rates.
First published 29 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch
Spot gold little changed at $4,024.54 per ounce with markets pricing in rate decisions.
Open
BTC
Next-day ETF flow releases show continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
First published 30 Jul 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Bitcoin ETFs Record $312M Inflows as Ether Funds See Outflows.
Open