Open data · CC BY 4.0
Track record
Each Radar scenario names the signal that would confirm it, the one that would disprove it, and a deadline. When the deadline passes we score it. If nothing observable settled it, we say so — an unchecked call is not a failed one, and not a win either.
All scenarios
30
scenarios
Hit rate stays hidden until at least 5 scenarios have a real verdict (now 3). A percentage of two outcomes is noise.
Scenarios, newest first
BTCDisproved
ETF flow data shows increased adoption of Bitcoin yield products.
First published 13 Aug 2026 · positive · wait for confirmation
Price 62,773 fell below the 63,378 trigger.
BTCDisproved
BTC trades below 200-week moving average near $63,770.
First published 3 Aug 2026 · negative · review risk
Price 64,197 rose above the 63,770 trigger.