Open data · CC BY 4.0

Track record

Each Radar scenario names the signal that would confirm it, the one that would disprove it, and a deadline. When the deadline passes we score it. If nothing observable settled it, we say so — an unchecked call is not a failed one, and not a win either.

All scenarios

scenarios

Confirmed1
Disproved2
Open2
Lapsed0
Could not check25

Hit rate stays hidden until at least 5 scenarios have a real verdict (now 3). A percentage of two outcomes is noise.

Scenarios, newest first

US10Y

US H.15 Selected Interest Rates release on 2026-08-03 shows benchmark range unchanged.

First published 26 Jul 2026 · mixed · watch

Confirmed: US H.15 Selected Interest Rates release on 2026-07-27 shows limited repricing.

Confirmed